Heavy rainfall is expected in the western Balkans and southern Turkey

Affected by the eastward movement of an upper-level trough (Figure 1), it is forecasted that from February 12 to 14, 2026, parts of southwestern Italy, the western coastal regions of the Balkan Peninsula, and southern Turkey will experience moderate to heavy rain, with localized heavy downpours or torrential rain. The cumulative precipitation is expected to range from 60-100 millimeters, with some areas exceeding 160 millimeters(Figure 2), indicating a certain level of extremity. Attention should be given to the potential secondary disasters caused by the heavy rainfall, such as flash floods, landslides, and urban flooding.

Figure 1  500 hPa Geopotential Height (units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (units: m/s) at 00:00 UTC on February 13, 2026

Figure 2  Accumulated Precipitation from 00:00 UTC February 12, 2026, to 00:00 UTC February 15, 2026 (unit: mm)

https://www.wmc-bj.net

Author: Hu Yingying                               Reviewer: Zhang Bo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                  Issue approver:Dai Kan