Heavy Rainfall and Strong Wind will Experience in Southern Africa

Affected by the upper-level trough and the warm, moist airflow on the periphery of the subtropical high (Figure 1), heavy rainfall is expected in southern Africa from March 5 to 9. Moderate to heavy rain will occur in the central and eastern parts of the Republic of South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Specifically, southeastern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and northeastern South Africa will experience torrential to extremely heavy rain. Accumulated precipitation is forecasted to be between 25 and 60 millimeters, with southeastern Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique receiving 70 to 110 millimeters, and localized areas exceeding 130 millimeters (Figure 2). These regions will also be accompanied by winds of 4 to 6 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts of 7 to 8, and coastal areas experiencing gusts of 9 to 10 (Figure 3). Attention should be given to the adverse impacts of the severe wind and rain on local transportation and other industries.

Figure 1. Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and Wind Field (wind barbs and color shading, units: m/s) at 1200 UTC on March 7, 2026

Figure 2. Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from 00:00 on March 5 to 00:00 on March 10, 2026 (UTC), shaded areas indicate precipitation amounts in millimeters (Unit: mm)

Figure 3. Forecast of Maximum Gust Wind Speed from 00:00 UTC March 7 to 00:00 UTC March 8, 2026 (Shaded, unit: m/s)

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Author: Huo Da                          Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                               Issue approver:Dai Kan