Severe Rain and Wind Events Expected in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Adjacent Regions
Over the next three days, influenced by a Bay of Bengal storm and the monsoon trough (Fig. 1), severe rain and wind events are expected in east-central India, southwestern Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and southern Myanmar. Among these, torrential to extremely heavy rainfall is forecast for east-central India, southwestern Sri Lanka, Nepal, the southern coastal areas of Bangladesh, and the southern coastal areas of Myanmar, with localized areas expecting devastating heavy rainfall (reaching or exceeding historical extremes for the same period). Cumulative rainfall in the aforementioned regions is expected to range from 60 to 90 mm, with some areas reaching 120 mm and parts of central India exceeding 290 mm (Fig. 2).Winds of force 4 to 5 are expected in east-central India and Sri Lanka, with force 6 to 7 and gusts up to force 8 along the eastern coast of India (Fig. 3). Vigilance should be exercised against secondary disasters such as flash floods, landslides, and mudslides that may be triggered by the heavy precipitation.
Figure 1: Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, unit: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (barbs, unit: m/s) at 20:00 BJT on September 23, 2026
Figure 2: Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 BJT 22 September to 20:00 BJT 25 September, 2026 (unit: mm)
Figure 3: 6-hour Maximum Gust at 20:00 BJT 24 September 2026 (unit: m/s)
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Author: Xiong Minquan Reviewer: Ma Jie