Tropical Storm Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to Mexico and adjacent areas

At 00:00 UTC on the 18th, Tropical Storm Erick was located approximately 370 kilometers southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico (94.6°W, 12.9°N) (Figure 1), moving northwestward at a speed of 10-15 kilometers per hour with rapidly intensifying strength. It is expected that Erick will make landfall on the southwestern coast of Mexico late on the 19th, potentially reaching peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane before landfall. Due to the influence of Erick, from the 19th to the 20th, the southwestern coast of Mexico will experience winds of 9-11 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts of 12-13. In the nearby sea areas through which the center of Erick passes, wind speeds could reach 12-14 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts of 15-16.

Figure 1. Satellite Infrared Monitoring Image (00:00 UTC, June 18, 2025)

Affected by Erick and its peripheral circulation, heavy to torrential rain is expected from June 18 to 21 in central and southern Mexico, most of Guatemala, El Salvador, western and northeastern Honduras, and Belize. Particularly, coastal areas of Mexico and eastern Belize will experience extremely heavy or exceptional downpours. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is forecasted to be between 30 and 90 millimeters, with coastal Mexico seeing 110 to 180 millimeters, and localized areas potentially reaching 200 to 300 millimeters (Figure 2). Attention should be given to the potential for localized flooding or landslides triggered by the intense rainfall.

Figure 2. Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from June 18-21, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Author: Huo Da, Liu Longsheng                                 Reviewer: Ma Jie 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan