Persistent Precipitation Expected in Nepal over the Next Three Days

From 12 to 15 October, under the influence of an upper-level trough (Fig. 1), Nepal will experience persistent precipitation (Fig. 2). Enhanced by orographic lifting along the southern slopes of the Himalayas, heavy to torrential rain is expected in some areas, while moderate to heavy snow is forecast over high-altitude regions.

Given above-normal precipitation in the preceding period and the resulting high soil moisture content, the risk of hazards is further elevated. Priority attention should be directed to guarding against secondary disasters triggered by the persistent precipitation—including flash floods, landslides and debris flows—as well as the disruption of aerial corridors (including rescue flights) caused by rainfall-induced low visibility, and the consequent adverse impacts on air transport and emergency rescue operations.

Figure 1: Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (barbs, units: m/s) at 08:00 BJT on October 14, 2026

Figure 2: Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 BJT on 12 October to 20:00 BJT on 15 October, 2026 (unit: mm)

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Author: Xiong Minquan                            Reviewer: Zhang Bo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan