Producer: Shaoyu ZHANG, Jieli HONG, Hailing ZHONG and Ting DING

Issue approver: Xiaolong JIA

Contacts: Yunyun Liu (+86 10 5899 3090;liuyuny@cma.gov.cn). Issued on Nov 15, 2026

In October 2026, the global average temperature was above normal for the same period. Temperatures were more than 4°C above normal in northern North Asia, northern Europe, northern and central North America, and the Antarctic region near 120°E–60°W. Temperatures were below normal in central and southern North Asia, northern East Asia, northeastern South Asia, northern Africa, parts of western and northern Australia, northeastern North America and western Greenland, and central and southern South America. Global precipitation was unevenly distributed and was above normal for the same period in many areas. Precipitation was significantly above normal in central and northern East Asia, northern India, western West Asia, northern Africa and parts of eastern Africa, central Australia, southwestern North America, and southern South America, with some areas more than 200% above normal. Precipitation was significantly below normal in eastern North Asia, southern East Asia, most of Southeast Asia, most of Central Asia, most of Europe, central and southern Africa, and central and eastern North America. In October 2026, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific continued to be above normal. The sea surface temperature index in the Ni？o 3.4 region was 3.34°C, up 0.4°C from the previous month; the August–October running mean was 2.96°C, and the super strong El Ni？o event continued to develop. In October, sea ice concentration in most seas of the Northern Hemisphere was close to normal for the same period; in Antarctica, except for some waters in the Drake Passage where it was above normal, most other waters were near to below normal. Snow cover days in the Northern Hemisphere were generally above normal, and snow cover area was above normal in the Northern Hemisphere, Eurasia, North America, and China. In October, major global weather and climate events included heavy rain and flooding, drought, hurricanes and storms, landslides, and air pollution. In October, a severe drought occurred in the Amazon region of Brazil, which was related to anomalous Walker circulation under the super strong El Ni？o and weakened moisture transport caused by warming in the tropical North Atlantic; forest fires and reduced vegetation transpiration further exacerbated the drought impacts.

It is expected that in December 2026, temperatures over most of the globe will be close to or above normal for the same period. Temperatures will be more than 2°C above normal in northern Russia, most of Europe, northern Central Asia, southern West Asia, eastern South Asia, northern Southeast Asia, northern Africa and parts of southern Africa, southern Australia, most of central and northern North America, and parts of northern South America. Precipitation will be more than 20% above normal in southern Southeast Asia, most of East Asia, central and western North Asia, Central Asia, most of West Asia, most of Europe, northern and central Africa, western and southeastern North America, most of central and southern South America, and central and southern Australia. Among these areas, precipitation will be 50%–200% above normal in central and southern Southeast Asia, southeastern and northern East Asia, the central part of Central Asia, northern West Asia, western Europe, parts of northern Africa, central North America, and most of central and southern South America, with locally more than 200% above normal. There is a risk of disasters triggered by concentrated precipitation. Precipitation will be more than 20% below normal in eastern Far East Russia, northern Southeast Asia, most of South Asia, southern West Asia, northwestern Africa, western Australia and parts of eastern Australia, southern North America and parts of northern North America, and northern South America. Among these areas, precipitation will be 50%–80% below normal in most of South Asia, northern Southeast Asia, southern West Asia, northwestern Africa, western Australia, southern North America, and northern South America, posing a risk of meteorological drought. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will remain near their peak.