Typhoons "RAGASA" and "BUALOI" to Bring Severe Wind and Rain to the South China Sea and Surrounding Areas
Typhoon RAGASA, the 18th typhoon of this year, has weakened from a severe tropical storm to a tropical storm as of this morning (the 25th). Currently (at 08:00 Beijing time on the 25th), its center is located approximately 5 kilometers southwest of Beihai City in Guangxi, China. It is expected that RAGASA will move westward at a speed of 20-25 Km/h, heading towards the northern coast of Vietnam. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall on the northern coast of Vietnam in the afternoon to early evening of the 25th, after which it will turn southwestward and gradually weaken in intensity (Figure 1).
Typhoon BUALOI, the 20th typhoon of this year, intensified into a severe tropical storm last night (24th). Currently (at 08:00 Beijing time on the 25th), its center is located approximately 890 kilometers southeast of Manila, the Philippines. It is expected to move northwestward at a speed of 20-25 Km/h, crossing through central Philippines, and entering the eastern waters of the South China Sea by early morning on the 27th. Thereafter, it will continue to move northwestward, gradually gaining strength (Figure 2).
Affected by the two aforementioned typhoons, from the 25th to the 30th, regions including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos will experience heavy to torrential rain, with some areas facing extreme downpours. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to reach 50-90 mm, with some areas receiving 120-180 mm, and localized totals exceeding 250 mm (Figure 3). Near the paths of the typhoon centers, wind speeds can reach up to 8 levels, with gusts of 9-10 levels. Simultaneously, influenced by a tropical low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal, central and southern India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand will see moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing torrential rain and localized extreme downpours (Figure 3). Attention should be given to the adverse impacts of the severe wind and rain on electricity infrastructure, transportation, and other sectors in these regions, as well as the potential secondary disasters such as flooding, landslides, mudslides, and urban waterlogging that may be triggered by the intense rainfall.
Figure 1 24-hours Probabilistic Track Forecast for Typhoon "RAGASA" the 18th Tropical Cyclone of the Year
Figure 2 120-hours Probabilistic Track Forecast for Typhoon "BUALOI" the 20th Tropical Cyclone of the Year
Figure 3 Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from 0000 UTC September 25 to 0000 UTC October 1 (Units: mm)
Author: Wang Zeyi, Wang Haiping, Xiang Chunyi Reviewer: Cai Xiangning
English reviewer:Wang Yi Issue approver:Dai Kan
