Tropical Depression in the South China Sea to Affect Northern Vietnam

The South China Sea tropical depression will move west-northwestward at a speed of 15-20 km/h and gradually intensify, expected to develop into a typhoon within 12 hours. After crossing China's Hainan Island, the depression will move into the Gulf of Tonkin and shift to a north-northwestward track. It is forecast to make a second landfall along the coast of Guangxi, China, to the northern coast of Vietnam during the afternoon to evening of the 4th (20-23 m/s, force 8-9, tropical storm strength), before gradually weakening thereafter (Figure 1). Influenced by the tropical depression, starting from the 3rd, northeastern Vietnam will experience moderate to heavy rain, with localized heavy rain or intense downpours. During the rainfall process from the 3rd to the 7th, accumulated precipitation will reach 70-120 mm, with localized areas exceeding 150 mm (Figure 2).

Figure 1: 96-hour Track Probability Forecast for the South China Sea Tropical Depression from 08:00 on July 2 to 08:00 on July 7, 2026 (Beijing Time)

Figure 2: Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from 08:00 BJT on July 4 to 08:00 BJT on July 7, 2026 (Unit: mm)

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Author: Che Jinning                                                                Reviewer: Zhang Bo

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan