Turkey and Georgia Experience Severe Convective Weather

It is forecasted that over the next five days, influenced by an upper-level cold vortex (Figure 1), regions including Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, western Syria, and northwestern Georgia will experience light to moderate rain or showers, with localized heavy to torrential rain. The cumulative rainfall during this period is expected to range from 40 to 100 millimeters, with some areas exceeding 120 millimeters (Figure 2). Additionally, these regions will be prone to severe convective weather, including short-duration intense rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds. Wind speeds in some areas will reach 6 to 7 on the Beaufort scale, with maximum gusts of 9 to 10 (Figure 3). Special attention should be given to the potential for localized flash floods and landslides in western Turkey due to persistent rainfall, as well as the adverse impacts of severe convective weather on transportation, outdoor activities, and agricultural production.

Figure 1  Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 20:00 (Beijing Time) on May 2, 2026

Figure 2  Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 on May 1 to 20:00 on May 5, 2026 (Beijing Time), (Shaded, Unit: mm)

Figure 3  Forecast of Maximum Gust Wind Speed for 24 Hours at 20:00 (Beijing Time) on May 4, 2026 (Shaded, Unit: m/s)

https://www.wmc-bj.net

Author: Hu Yingying                                 Reviewer: Zhou Ningfang 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan