Heavy Rainfall Expected Along the West Coast of India and in Sri Lanka

Over the next three days, influenced by a monsoon trough (Figure 1), the west coast of India and southwestern Sri Lanka will experience heavy to torrential rain. In particular, parts of the Indian states of Kerala and Goa will see intense downpours, accompanied by severe convective weather such as short-term heavy rainfall and thunderstorm gales. Accumulated precipitation is expected to reach 70-150 mm, with localized areas exceeding 200 mm (Figure 2). Additionally, after July 1, under the influence of a monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal, central and eastern India will also experience heavy to torrential rain, with isolated intense downpours.

Figure 1: Forecast of 500 hPa geopotential height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa wind field (barbs, units: m/s) at 12:00 UTC on June 30, 2026

Figure 2: Forecast of accumulated precipitation from 12:00 UTC on June 27 to 12:00 UTC on June 30, 2026 (shaded, unit: mm)

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Author: Che Jinning                                           Reviewer: Bao Huimeng 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                               Issue approver:Dai Kan