Persistent rainfall continues in northern Central Africa and northern East Africa, with localized severe convective weather

Over the past week, southern West Africa, northern Central Africa, and northern East Africa have experienced significant heavy rainfall. Specifically, cumulative rainfall totals in Kenya, C？te d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Congo-Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and Rwanda have reached 50-100 mm, with some areas recording 120-200 mm. In western Ghana and northern Tanzania, localized areas have exceeded 250 mm.

Over the next five days, northern Central Africa and northern East Africa are expected to continue experiencing rainfall, though overall intensity will generally decrease, with light to moderate rain or showers prevailing. Specifically, regions including Kenya, southern Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, northern Angola, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Central African Republic, southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, southern Mali, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, and southern South Africa will see heavy rain, with localized downpours. Accumulated rainfall during this period is expected to range from 40 to 100 millimeters, with some areas exceeding 120 millimeters (Figure 1). Additionally, these localized regions will be prone to severe convective weather, including short-duration heavy rain, thunderstorms, and lightning (Figure 2). Due to the previous rainfall, soil saturation levels are high, significantly increasing the risk of geological disasters. Attention should be given to the potential for localized flash floods and landslides in western and central Kenya due to persistent rainfall. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of localized severe convective weather on transportation, outdoor activities, and agricultural production should be closely monitored.

Figure 1: Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 on May 4 to 20:00 on May 9, 2026 (Beijing Time) (Shaded, Unit: mm)

Figure 2: Forecast of Convective Available Potential Energy (shaded) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 20:00 (Beijing Time) on May 5, 2026

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Author: Zhu Qingliang                                 Reviewer: Ma Jie 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan