Northern South America Experiences Heavy Rainfall
Affected by the Intertropical Convergence Zone and low-level jets (Figure 1), it is expected that over the next five days, regions including northwestern Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, southern Colombia, Venezuela, and northern Brazil will experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with some areas facing torrential rain and localized severe downpours. These conditions will be accompanied by intense convective weather such as short-duration heavy rain and thunderstorms with strong winds. The cumulative precipitation for this period is anticipated to be 30-60 mm in most of these regions, with some areas receiving 80-120 mm, and locally exceeding 140 mm (Figure 2).
Additionally, influenced by an upper-level trough and cold air, central and southern Chile, as well as central and southern Argentina, will experience light to moderate rain, with localized heavy downpours. In the southern parts of these regions and in high-altitude mountainous areas, light to moderate snow or sleet is expected, with localized heavy snowfall. These areas will also be accompanied by winds of 5 to 6 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts reaching 7 to 8 (Figure 3).
Precautions should be taken against potential secondary disasters such as flash floods and landslides that may be triggered by heavy rainfall, as well as the adverse impacts of localized severe convective weather on transportation, outdoor activities, and other operations.
Figure 1 Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 08:00 BST on May 12, 2026
Figure 2 Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 on May 10 to 20:00 on May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time) (Shaded, Unit: mm)
Figure 3 Forecast of Maximum Gusts for 24 Hours from 08:00 BST on May 11, 2026, to 08:00 BST on May 12, 2026 (Unit: m/s)
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Author: Hu Yingying Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo
English reviewer:Wang Yi Issue approver:Dai Kan