Heavy Rainfall Expected in Central and Northern India and the Indo-China Peninsula

Over the past week, parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Laos, and southern Vietnam experienced heavy to very heavy rainfall, with localized areas witnessing extremely heavy downpours. The cumulative rainfall in these regions generally reached 80-150 mm, with some areas recording 150-300 mm and localized totals exceeding 400 mm (Figure 1).

It is forecasted that from August 15 to 20, influenced by a low vortex and the southwest monsoon (Figure 2), parts of central and northern India, western India, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia will experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with localized heavy downpours or extreme rainstorms. These areas will also be accompanied by severe convective weather such as short-duration intense rain and thunderstorms with strong winds. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to range from 60 to 150 mm, with some areas receiving 180 to 300 mm, and locally exceeding 400 mm. Notably, the central part of India may reach or even surpass historical extreme precipitation levels for the same period (Figure 3).

Attention should be given to the potential secondary disasters triggered by the heavy rainfall in the aforementioned areas, including flooding, landslides, debris flows, and urban waterlogging.

Figure 1: Accumulated Precipitation from August 9 to 15, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Figure 2: 500 hPa Geopotential Height (Contour Lines) and 850 hPa Wind Field (Wind Barbs) at 00:00 UTC, August 16, 2025

Figure 3: Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from August 15 to 20, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Author: Luo Qi                                 Reviewer: Ma Jie 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                     Issue approver:Dai Kan