Hurricane "Melissa" will Seriously Impact Cuba

Hurricane "Melissa" in the North Atlantic made landfall near the southwest coast of Jamaica around 01:00 BJT this morning, with maximum sustained winds near its center exceeding 17 levels (82 meters per second), equivalent to a super typhoon in China. As of 08:00 BJT this morning, the center was located 510 kilometers west of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It is expected that "Melissa" will move rapidly northeastward at a speed of approximately 20 kilometers per hour and make a second landfall along the southeastern coast of Cuba around noon on the 29th (with maximum sustained winds near its center of 55-58 meters per second, a Category 3 hurricane, equivalent to a super typhoon in China), after which its intensity will gradually weaken (Figure 1).

Affected by this system, from the 29th to the 30th, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic will continue to experience light to moderate rain, with localized heavy rain. Eastern Cuba will see heavy to intense rain, with localized extremely heavy downpours. Accumulated precipitation is expected to range from 80 to 200 mm, with areas along the southeastern coast and in Granma Province exceeding 300 mm. Eastern Cuba will also be subjected to winds of 10 to 15 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts potentially reaching above 16 (Figure 2). Attention should be given to the adverse impacts of the strong winds and rain on local power facilities, transportation, and other sectors, as well as to the prevention of secondary disasters such as flooding, landslides, and mudslides that may be triggered by the intense rainfall.

Figure 1: 60-Hour Forecast Track for Hurricane "Melissa"

Figure 2: 925 hPa Wind Field and Rainfall Over the Past 12 Hours (Units: mm) at 20:00 (BJT) on October 29

Author: Zhou Ningfang, Kong Linghan, Lv Xinyan                                 Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan