Persistent High Temperatures Expected in Central and Southern Europe

Over the past three days, influenced by an upper-level trough, central and northern Europe have experienced light rain, with localized moderate to heavy downpours, accompanied by short-duration intense rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail. Additionally, affected by a high-pressure system, parts of southwestern Europe have seen high temperatures exceeding 30°C, with southeastern Spain, most of France, and southern Italy experiencing maximum temperatures surpassing 35°C.

It is expected that over the next week, influenced by a slow-moving and gradually intensifying upper-level warm ridge (Fig. 1), persistent high-temperature conditions will prevail in central and southern Europe. The maximum temperatures in southeastern England and most of Central Europe are anticipated to reach 32-35°C, which is 5-8°C higher than the long-term average for the same period. In most of France, northeastern Austria, southern Hungary, most of Portugal, southern and northeastern Spain, southern Italy, northern Serbia, and southern Romania, the maximum temperatures are expected to reach 35-37°C, with localized areas exceeding 40°C (Fig. 2). These temperatures are likely to reach or surpass historical extremes.

Figure 1. Average 500 hPa Geopotential Height (Contour, Unit: dagpm) and Anomaly (Shaded, Unit: dagpm) from June 27 to July 3, 2025

Figure 2. Maximum Temperature Forecast from June 27 to July 3, 2025 (Unit: °C)

Author: Min Yue                                 Reviewer: Ma Jie 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dan Kan