India and Myanmar will Experience Persistent Heavy Rainfall

Over the next week (July 5-11), influenced by the southwest monsoon and an Indian low-pressure system (Figure 1), parts of central and northern India, Bangladesh, and most parts of Myanmar will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized extremely heavy downpours. These areas will also be accompanied by some severe convective weather such as short-duration intense rainfall and thunderstorms. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to be between 50 and 90 mm, with some areas can reach 120 to 180 mm. Notably, local areas in the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as well as Myanmar's Kachin and Rakhine States, could see accumulations exceeding 250 mm (Figure 2). Attention should be given to secondary disasters such as flooding, landslides, mudslides, and urban waterlogging triggered by the persistent heavy rainfall.

Figure 1  500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 1200 UTC on July 5, 2025

Figure 2  Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from July 5 to 11, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Author: Xie Jin                                 Reviewer: Zhang Bo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                     Issue approver:Dai Kan