Heavy Rainfall Expected in Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela

Over the past week, heavy rainfall has been observed in northern and western Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, central Bolivia, eastern and southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, and southern Chile. Accumulated precipitation totals have reached 100-250 mm, with some areas exceeding 300 mm. Notably, localized rainfall in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia, and the Demerara-Mahaica region of Guyana has surpassed 500 mm (Figure 1).

Over the next six days, influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (Figure 2), parts of western Venezuela, southern and coastal western Colombia, eastern Ecuador, northwestern Brazil, and northwestern Peru are expected to experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with localized downpours. Accumulated precipitation is forecasted to range from 60-160 mm, with some areas exceeding 250 mm (Figure 3). These regions will also be accompanied by severe convective weather, including short-duration intense rain and thunderstorms with strong winds (Figure 4). Attention should be given to the risks of secondary disasters such as flooding, landslides, mudslides, and urban waterlogging in these heavy rainfall areas.

Figure 1  Accumulated Rainfall from June 23 to 29, 2025 (unit: mm)

Figure 2  500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, unit: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, unit: m/s) at 12 UTC on July 3, 2025

Figure 3  Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from June 30 to July 5, 2025 (unit: mm)

Figure 4  Forecast of 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, unit: m/s) and K-Index (shaded, unit: °C) at 00 UTC on July 3, 2025

Author: Hu Yingying                                 Reviewer: Niu Ruoyun 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan