Heavy Rainfall Expected in India, Myanmar, and Other Regions

        Over the next five days, under the influence of the southwest monsoon and tropical disturbances (Figure 1), parts of western and northeastern India, southwestern Sri Lanka, northern Bangladesh, as well as western and southern Myanmar, and southwestern Thailand are expected to experience heavy to torrential rain. Localized extreme downpours are forecast in India’s Goa, Kerala, and Assam states, as well as Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Ayeyarwady Region, Kayin State, and Mon State (Figure 2),  accompanied by short-duration heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, and strong winds. Total rainfall accumulations across most affected areas will generally range between 50–100 mm, with some regions receiving 120–180 mm. In south-central Goa, India, localized accumulations may exceed 300 mm. Close monitoring is required for potential secondary disasters such as flooding that may be triggered by the heavy rainfall.

Figure 1: 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 00:00 UTC on June 15, 2025

Figure 2: Forecast of  Accumulated Precipitation from June 14-18, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Author: Yang Jing                                 Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan