Central and northern Europe will be hit by blizzards and cold waves

I. Real-time Monitoring

Since January 2024, under the influence of strong and stable polar vorticity and surface cyclones (Fig.1a), Europe has experienced a large range of wind cooling and continuous low temperature with rain and snow. In the past week, some parts of central and eastern Europe have experienced heavy blizzard. Some parts of southern Western Europe, western Central Europe, and eastern Southern Europe saw moderate to heavy rain and local downpours. In addition, freezing rain fell in parts of northern Central Europe. On January 9, the snow depth in most of Northern Europe, central and northern Eastern Europe, and parts of northern Southern Europe exceeded 30cm, and locally exceeded 50cm (Fig. 1b). Western Europe, Central Europe, southern Europe and other places have experienced strong winds and cooling weather, the wind level in most areas mentioned reached  4 ~ 6 and local gust level reached 8 ~ 10, the maximum 24-hour temperature drop in most areas reached 8 ~ 12℃ with some local regions more than 14℃ (Fig. 1c).

(a)

(b)

(c)

Fig. 1  (a)500hPa average potential height (contours, unit: dagpm) and anomaly (coloring, unit:dagpm) from Jan. 5 to Jan. 11, (b) Snow depth on Jan. 9 (unit: cm), (c)48-hour temperature changes  (unit: ℃)

II. Future Forecast:

In the next three days, under the combined influence of polar vortex splitting southward and surface cyclone, Europe will still have strong winds, cooling, rain and snow from north to south (Fig. 2a). Small or moderate snow or sleet will happen in most of Northern Europe, northern Western Europe, most of Central Europe, most of Eastern Europe and so on. Heavy snow will happen in some local regions of northern Europe and southwestern Eastern Europe. In addition, there will have light or moderate rain in some parts of western and southern Europe with possible some heavy or torrential rain in western Southern Europe (Fig. 2b). A 24hour-temperature drop between 6 to 10℃ will occur in some places of northern Western Europe, Northern Europe, northern Eastern Europe. The 48-hour temperature drop will reach 18℃ or more in some local regions of western Northern Europe and northern Eastern Europe (Fig. 2c). On January 15, the daily minimum temperature in most parts of Western Europe and Central Europe will reach -2℃ or lower, and the daily minimum temperature in some northern parts of Britain and some places of central and eastern France will reach -2℃ or lower. Therefore, the major precipitation phases in the mentioned above areas will be snow or sleet (Fig. 2d).

(a)                                                                         (b)

(c)                                                                                 (d)

图2. 2024年1月15日12时（UTC）（a）500hPa高度场（等值线）和850hPa风场（风向杆）,(b)2米气温48小时变温（单位：℃）、(c)1月14日12时至15日12时（UTC）雨雪预报、(d)1月15日最低2m气温预报（单位：℃）

Fig.2  (a) 500hPa height field (contours) and 850hPa wind field (wind barb) and (b) 48-hour temperature change at 2m (unit: ° c) at 12:00 UTC on Jan. 15, 2024, (c) Rain and snow forecast from 12:00 on Jan. 14 to 12:00 on Jan. 15 (UTC),  (d) Minimum 2m temperature forecast on Jan. 15 (unit: ° C)

Author: Xie Jin                                  Reviewer: Bao Yuanyuan 

English reviewer: Wang Yi                         Issue approver: Dai Kan