Severe Winter Storms Hit Southeastern Central Asia and Northern Western Asia

Recently, the southeastern part of Eastern Europe, the western part of Central Asia, and the western part of Western Asia have been affected by a cut-off cold vortex, resulting in rainy and snowy weather with  temperature drops. It is expected that from February 24th to 27th, the cold vortex will continue to intensify and move slowly  southeastward, controlling the northern parts of Central Asia and Western Asia (Figure 1). The warm and moist airflows from the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea, which are incorporated into the cyclonic circulation of the cold vortex, and the cold air mass from high latitudes will converge, bringing widespread rain and snow to the northern part of Central Asia and Western Asia. Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, Tajikistan, eastern Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and southeastern Kazakhstan. Among these areas, the northeastern part of Pakistan and eastern Tajikistan, under the influence of the uplift of the Pamir Plateau and surrounding mountainous terrain, will experience a significant increase in precipitation, with extremely severe snowstorms locally (Figure 2).

Strong winds with a force of 6-7 levels are expected in the southeastern part of Central Asia and the middle-eastern part of Western Asia from February 24th to the 27th, with gusts potentially exceeding level 8 (Figure 3). The temperature will drop by 4-8℃, with certain areas in the northeast of Afghanistan and the central-eastern parts of Tajikistan experiencing temperature drops of up to 10-12℃.

Figure 1: 500 hPa geopotential height (contours) and 850 hPa wind field (barbs) at 20:00 (BJT) on February 25, 2025

Figure 2. Forecast of cumulative precipitation(unit: mm) from February 25 to 27, 2025 (BJT)

Figure 3 Forecast of 24-hour maximum gust wind speed(Unit: m/s) on February 25, 2025 (BJT)

Author: Hu Yingying                                  Reviewer: Bao Yuanyuan 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan