Persistent High Temperatures Emerge in West, Central, and South Asia

Western and Southwestern Europe Experiences Above-Average Temperatures

In April, the average temperatures in most regions of West Asia, South Asia, and southern Central Asia are expected to be 4 to 6°C higher than the long-term average for the same period, with some areas experiencing anomalies exceeding 8°C. Additionally, persistent high-temperature conditions have been observed in certain regions. Notably, Pakistan, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have experienced abnormally high temperatures, with maximum temperatures surpassing 45°C in parts of West and South Asia.

It is forecasted that over the next week, under the influence of the subtropical high or continental ridge, most regions in eastern West Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, the majority of South Asia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southern Kazakhstan will experience below-normal rainfall. High temperatures ranging from 35 to 37°C, with localized areas exceeding 40°C, are expected to persist. Specifically, parts of eastern Saudi Arabia, eastern Iran, southwestern Afghanistan, eastern Pakistan, and western India will likely see maximum temperatures surpassing 45°C (Figures 1-2).

Figure 1: 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, shaded areas indicate wind speed) at 12:00 UTC on May 1, 2025

Figure 2: Forecast of Daily Maximum Temperatures (≥35°C) from April 30 to May 7, 2025

Over the past week, average temperatures in Western Europe and the western part of Southern Europe were 1 to 3°C higher than the long-term average for the same period, with localized areas in Spain and Portugal experiencing anomalies of around 4°C. Looking ahead, the forecast for the upcoming week indicates precipitation events across Western, Southern, and Central Europe. Specifically, Spain and Portugal are expected to see mainly light to moderate rain. Average temperatures will range from 10 to 17°C, close to the seasonal norm. Before April 6, daily maximum temperatures will be between 18 and 24°C, with some localized areas exceeding 28°C. A temperature drop is anticipated to begin on April 7 (Figures 3-5).

Figure 3: 24-hour Rainfall Accumulation and 850 hPa Wind Field (Wind Barbs, Shaded Areas Indicate Wind Speed) at 00:00 UTC on May 3, 2025

Figure 4: Forecast of Daily Average Temperature from 20:00 from April 30 to May 7, 2025 (Unit: °C)

Figure 5: Forecast of Daily Maximum Temperatures from April 30 to May 7, 2025 (Unit: °C)

Author: Xu Chengpeng                                 Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan