Heavy Rainfall to Persist in India, Myanmar and Bangladesh

Pakistan and Surrounding Regions Experience Severe Convective Weather

Over the next three days, the low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is expected to move northeastward (Figure 1). Under the combined influence of this low-pressure system and the tropical monsoon, heavy rainfall will persist in parts of India, Myanmar, and the Indochina Peninsula. Specifically, regions including Kerala, Assam, and Meghalaya in India, Sylhet in Bangladesh, and Kachin and Rakhine States in Myanmar will experience torrential or extremely heavy rain, accompanied by intense convective weather such as short-duration heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with strong winds. Accumulated precipitation in most of these areas is expected to range from 80 to 150 mm, with some regions receiving 180 to 250 mm, and localized areas potentially exceeding 350 mm (Figure 2). Close monitoring is required for potential geological disasters resulting from the persistent heavy rainfall.

Additionally, influenced by a low-pressure vortex (Figure 1), regions including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and northern Pakistan will experience light to moderate rainfall, with localized heavy downpours. These areas will also be affected by severe convective weather, including short-duration intense rain and thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds.

Figure 1 Forecast of 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, unit: m/s) and K-Index (shaded, unit: °C) at 08:00 BST on May 31, 2025

Figure 2 Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 on May 29, 2025, to 20:00 on June 1, 2025 (Beijing Time), in millimeters (mm)

Author: Yang Jing  Wang Qian                                 Reviewer: Bao Yuanyuan 

English reviewer:Wang yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan