Scattered Shower Activity Expected in Central and Southern India and the Indo-China Peninsula

Over the next five days, influenced by the southwest monsoon and the edge of the subtropical high, scattered showers are expected across South Asia and the Indo-China Peninsula. Specifically, parts of central and southern India, western Sri Lanka, eastern Bangladesh, Myanmar, western and southern Thailand, central and southern Laos, northwestern and southern Vietnam, Cambodia, and northern Malaysia will experience light to moderate rain, with localized heavy rain or downpours. These areas may also witness severe convective weather such as short-duration intense rainfall and thunderstorms with strong winds. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is anticipated to be between 20～40 mm, with localized areas receiving 60～90 mm. In southern Myanmar and southwestern Cambodia, some locations may exceed 130 mm.  After June 9, rainfall in these regions is expected to significantly intensify, with widespread moderate to heavy rain and localized torrential downpours., rainfall in these regions is expected to significantly intensify, with widespread moderate to heavy rain and localized torrential downpours.

Since late May, parts of eastern and southern India, Bangladesh, and the Indo-China Peninsula have accumulated rainfall totals ranging from 120～280 mm, with localized areas exceeding 500 mm. Due to the preceding rainfall, soil saturation levels are high, significantly increasing the risk of geological disasters. Close monitoring is required for potential secondary hazards such as floods and landslides that may be triggered by localized heavy downpours.

Figure 1 500 hPa Geopotential Height Field (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 20:00, June 8, 2025 (BJT)

Figure 2 Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 on June 5 to 20:00 on June 10, 2025 (BJT，units: mm)

Author: Hu Yingying, Min Yue                        Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan