Heavy Rainfall Expected in Central and Southern Myanmar and Southwest India

Affected by the enhanced southwest monsoon and a cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal, it is expected that over the next five days, parts of central and southern Myanmar, southern Bangladesh, northeastern and southern India, and western Sri Lanka will experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with localized heavy downpours or intense rain. Some areas will also be accompanied by severe convective weather such as short-duration heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with strong winds. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to be between 30-60 mm, with some areas receiving 80-140 mm. Notably, localized areas in Mandalay Region, Karen State, Mon State, and Tanintharyi Region in Myanmar, southwestern India, and southwestern Sri Lanka could exceed 200 mm. This heavy rainfall event, combined with the impact of previous precipitation, significantly increases the risk of disasters, necessitating close monitoring for potential secondary hazards such as flooding and landslides.

Figure 1 500 hPa Geopotential Height Field (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 14:00 BJT on June 11, 2025

Figure 2 Accumulated Precipitation from 20:00 on June 10 to 20:00 on June 15, 2025 (BJT, Unit: mm)

Author: Hu Yingying                                 Reviewer: Wang Guanlan 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai kan