Heavy Rainfall and Convective Weather Expected in Central and Northern Madagascar

Affected by a tropical low-pressure system in the Mozambique Channel (Figure 1), it is expected that from January 29 to February 1, 2026, regions including central and northern Madagascar, southeastern Tanzania, northeastern Mozambique, Malawi, Comoros, Mauritius, and Réunion will experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with localized downpours and some areas facing extreme rainfall. The cumulative precipitation in these regions is anticipated to be between 40 and 90 mm, with some areas receiving 120 to 220 mm, and locally exceeding 250 mm (Figure 2). These conditions will be accompanied by severe convective weather, including short-duration intense rain and thunderstorms with strong winds (Figure 3). Precautions are advised against potential secondary disasters such as flooding, landslides, mudslides, and urban waterlogging, as well as adverse impacts on power facilities, transportation, and other sectors in the affected areas.

Figure 1  Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height (units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field  at 12:00 (UTC) on January 31, 2026(units: m/s)

Figure 2 Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from 00:00 on January 29 to 12:00 on February 1, 2026 (UTC，unit：mm)

Figure 3 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) and K-Index (shaded, units: °C) at 12:00 (UTC) on January 31, 2026

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Author: Zhang Suzhao                                        Reviewer: Zhang Bo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan