Heavy Rainfall Expected in India and Myanmar

It is expected that over the next week, influenced by the southwest monsoon and a tropical depression (Fig.1), parts of central and northern India, the western coast of India, most of Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, northeastern and southern Thailand, Laos, northern Vietnam, and Cambodia will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized extremely heavy downpours. These areas will also be accompanied by severe convective weather such as short-duration intense rainfall and thunderstorms with strong winds. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to range from 50 to 90 mm, with some areas receiving 120 to 180 mm. Localized areas in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Goa in India; the Mahakali and Seti Zones in western Nepal; Kachin, Rakhine, and Mon States in Myanmar; Vientiane Province in Laos; and Ha Giang, Tuyen Quang, Thai Nguyen Provinces, and Hanoi City in Vietnam may exceed 300 mm (Fig.2).

Additionally, Pakistan is expected to experience frequent showers and severe convective weather over the next week. On June 28-29, most of Pakistan will see light rain, with moderate to heavy rain in the northern and southeastern regions. Localized heavy downpours are anticipated in northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and coastal areas of Sindh, accompanied by short-duration intense rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds. From July 3-4, most of Pakistan will experience light to moderate rain, with localized heavy rain and associated severe convective weather, including short-duration intense rainfall and thunderstorms with strong winds.

Figure 1. 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 1200 UTC on June 28, 2025

Figure 2. Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from June 28 to July 5, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Author: Min Yue                                 Reviewer: Liu Xiaobo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan