Heavy Rain and Wind Expected in Western and Southern Europe

           From October 1 to 5, under the influence of an eastward-moving upper-level cold vortex (Figure 1), multiple regions will experience moderate to heavy rainfall. These include eastern Italy, eastern Montenegro, northern Albania, southern Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece, southern Romania, Bulgaria, Ireland, the northern UK, southern Norway, southwestern Sweden, Denmark, northern Germany, and the northern Netherlands. Some areas may see heavy downpours and locally extreme rainfall, with southern Norway and high-altitude areas of Montenegro expecting moderate to heavy snow or sleet, along with localized blizzards. Accumulated precipitation is forecast to reach 40–80 mm, with some locations exceeding 140 mm (Figure 2), indicating a notable level of extremity. Strong winds of force 6–7 are also expected across most of these regions, with localized gusts exceeding force 8 (Figure 3). Attention should be paid to the potential adverse impacts of heavy rainfall and strong winds on holiday travel, power infrastructure, transportation, and other sectors in the affected areas.

Figure 1  Forecast of 500 hPa Geopotential Height and 850 hPa Wind Field at 00 UTC on October 2

Figure 2  24-Hour Maximum Gust Forecast for October 3 (Unit: m/s)

Figure 3  Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from October 1 to 5 (Unit: mm)

Author: Hu Yingying                                 Reviewer: Bao Yuanyuan 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan