The Philippine Islands are Expected to Experience Severe Wind and Rainfall

A tropical disturbance east of the Philippines has intensified into a tropical depression this morning (January 14th). At 08:00 Beijing time, its center was located approximately 1,240 kilometers southeast of Manila, Philippines (9.4°N, 131.1°E), with maximum winds near the center reaching 7 levels (15 m/s) and a minimum central pressure of 1002 hPa. It is expected that this depression will remain nearly stationary over its current location before moving northwest and then northeast, gradually intensifying. It is likely to become the first typhoon of the year within the next 24 hours, potentially reaching tropical storm strength (18-23 m/s, 8-9 levels) (Figure 1).

Affected by this system, over the next three days, the central and eastern parts of the Philippine Islands are expected to experience moderate to heavy rainfall. Specifically, Samar Island, Leyte Island, and the northern part of Mindanao will see heavy to very heavy downpours, with localized extreme rainfall. The cumulative precipitation during this period is forecasted to be 40-80 mm, with 100-180 mm in Samar Island and other areas, and locally exceeding 250 mm (Figure 2). These regions will also experience winds of 4-6 on the Beaufort scale, with coastal areas facing 7-force winds and gusts of 8-9 (Figure 3). Attention should be given to the potential secondary disasters caused by the intense rainfall, such as flash floods and urban flooding, as well as the adverse impacts on transportation and other industries.

Figure 1. 120-hour Probability Forecast for the Track of the Tropical Depression East of the Philippines (From 00:00 on January 14 to 00:00 on January 19, UTC)

Figure 2. Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation from 12:00 on January 14 to 12:00 on January 17 (UTC) (Unit: mm)

Figure 3. Maximum Gust Forecast from 00:00 on January 16 to 00:00 on January 17 (UTC) (Unit: m/s)

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Author: Huo Da, Wan Weiqi                     Reviewer: Bao Yuanyuan 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                          Issue approver:Dai Kan