Heavy rainfall  Expected in India, Myanmar, Korean Peninsula and Surrounding Areas

It is forecasted that over the next three days, influenced by the combined effects of the southwest monsoon and an Indian low-pressure system (Figure 1), parts of northern and southwestern India, Bangladesh, northern Myanmar, and northeastern Pakistan will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized extremely heavy downpours. These areas will also be accompanied by severe convective weather such as short-duration intense rainfall and thunderstorms with strong winds. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to be between 50 and 90 mm, with some areas receiving 100 to 140 mm. Notably, localized areas in Rajasthan, India, could see rainfall exceeding 250 mm(Figure 2).

Additionally, influenced by the combined effects of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and a low vortex system (Figure 3), most of the Korean Peninsula and parts of central and southern Japan will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized extremely heavy downpours. These areas will also be accompanied by severe convective weather such as short-duration intense rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail. The cumulative precipitation in most of these regions is expected to be between 60 and 100 mm with some areas receiving 100 to 150 mm. Specifically, localized areas in North Hamgyong Province of North Korea, North Gyeongsang Province and North Jeolla Province of South Korea, and central Japan could see accumulations exceeding 200 mm (Figure 4).

Attention should be given to the potential secondary disasters triggered by the heavy rainfall in the aforementioned areas, including flooding, landslides, debris flows, and urban waterlogging.

Figure 1  500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 00:00 UTC on July 15, 2025

Figure 2  Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation for India, Myanmar, and Surrounding Regions from July 13 to 16, 2025 (unit: mm)

Figure 3  500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours, units: dagpm) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, units: m/s) at 12:00 UTC on July 14, 2025

Figure 4  Forecasted Accumulated Precipitation for the Korean Peninsula and Surrounding Areas from July 13 to 16, 2025 (unit: mm)

Author: Yang Jing                                 Reviewer: Zhang Bo 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan