Tropical Cyclone “Gamane” in the southwest Indian Ocean will make landfall in Madagascar

1、Observation

Tropical cyclone "Gamane" in the southwest Indian Ocean was located at 12.9 degrees south latitude and 50.0 degrees east longitude at 08:00 on the 27th March(Beijing time, the same below), with a maximum wind force of 13 (38 m/s, equivalent to  typhoon in China), and a central pressure of 970 hPa. Affected by it,  heavy rain occurred in the northeastern coast of Madagascar and the northern part of the Mozambique Channel on the 26th, with a local rainfall of more than 300mm in 24 hours.

Figure 1 Satellite infrared monitoring image (08:00 on March 27, 2024, Beijing time)

2、Forecast

It is expected that "Gamane" will move to the south, and will land on the northeast coast of Madagascar around noon on the 27th, and the intensity will weaken rapidly after landfall, under its influence, from the 27th to the 30th, there will be heavy rain in the north and east of Madagascar, with extremely heavy rain along the coast,  the local cumulative precipitation can reach 600~800 mm, and gales in the area near the center of "Gamane" can reach 12-13 Bft and above. 

Fig.2 Probabilistic forecast of the next 120-hour track of "Garmane".

Figure 3. Forecast  of cumulative precipitation from 08:00 on March 27, 2024 to 20:00 on March 29, 2024 (unit: mm)

Author: Song Jianing,Li Xiaonan       Reviewer: Meng Qingtao, Gao Shuanzhu 

English reviewer: Wang Yi               Issue approver: Dai Kan