"Zelia" will severely affect the northwestern part of Australia

In the past 24 hours, the tropical cyclone "Zelia" has intensified from a wind force of level 9 to level 15 (Figure 1). In the next 24 hours, it is expected to move southwestward to a slightly southward direction at a speed of 5-10 kilometers per hour, maintaining its intensity or slightly strengthening. It is predicted to make landfall in the northwestern part of Western Australia between the afternoon and night on the 14th, with an intensity that could reach a strong tropical cyclone at the time of landfall (Figure 2).

Figure 1 Satellite Infrared Monitoring Image (Beijing Time 08:00 on February 13, 2025)

Figure 2: Probability of Path  Forecast  (Beijing Time, February 13, 2025, 08:00—20:00 on the 15th)

Affected by "Zelia," it is expected that from afternoon on the 13th to morning on the 15th, there will be gusts obove 20m/s in the offshore of northwestern Western Australia and near the coastal area of Port Hedland. The winds may reach grades 13 to 16 with gusts up to grade 17 in the sea areas or regions nearby where the center of "Zelia" passes. Continuous rainfall is expected in northern and northwestern parts of Western Australia, with heavy to locally severe rainstorms in parts of northwestern Western Australia.  Heavy rainstorms may occur, with accumulated precipitation amounts ranging from 100 to 200 millimeters, locally exceeding 300 millimeters. Local heavy rainfall may lead to an increased risk of flooding in the coastal areas of the northwest to the Nulagine region, while also causing the river levels to rise in areas such as Pilbara, Kimberley, and northern Gascoyne.

Figure 3 Forecast Map of Cumulative Precipitation from February 13 to 15, 2025 (Beijing Time) (Unit: mm)

Figure 4. Maximum gust speed at 0800 hours (Beijing time) on February 15, 2025 (Unit: m/s)

Author: Shi Rui, Wang Qian                                 Reviewer: Zhou Ningfang 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan