Heavy Rainfall Expected in Central and Southern India and Bangladesh

Affected by a tropical low-pressure system and low-level jet streams (Figure 1), it is expected that the central and southern parts of India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka will experience frequent precipitation over the next week. In regions such as Kerala, Goa, and Karnataka in India, heavy to extremely heavy rain is anticipated, accompanied by short-duration intense rainfall (with localized hourly rainfall exceeding 60 mm), thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail. The cumulative precipitation in most of these areas is expected to range from 30 to 60 mm, with some regions receiving 80 to 150 mm, and localized areas potentially exceeding 350 mm (Figure 2). In certain parts, rainfall is likely to reach or surpass historical extremes for the same period, necessitating close monitoring for potential geohazards triggered by the intense rainfall.

Figure 1: 500 hPa Geopotential Height (Isopleths) and 850 hPa Wind Field (Wind Barbs) at 00:00 UTC, May 20, 2025

Figure 2: Forecast of Accumulated Precipitation from May 18 to 24, 2025 (Unit: mm)

Author: Xu Chengpeng                                 Reviewer: Ma Jie 

English reviewer:Wang Yi                                                                       Issue approver:Dai Kan