Implementation Plan
Funding plan
Project budget mainly covers the following: development of convective-scale EPS, ensemble prediction post-processing techniques, verification and evaluation methods, and demonstration application platform; project investigation, organization, and assessment; project seminars, workshops, evaluation and acceptance meetings; international training organization cost, courseware production cost, lesson recording cost, and simultaneous interpretation cost. The total estimated cost during the execution of HangzhouRDP is RMB two million, supported by projects National Key Research and Development Program “Research, demonstration and application of key techniques of kilometer-scale and real-time forecast of typical disaster weather” and “Meteorological monitoring and forecasting capability improvement of Zhejiang Province project (digital forecast project)”. Insufficient funds will be self-raised by ZMB and CEMC.
Safeguard mechanism
The first mechanism is to establish a complete scientific management system. It is responsible for guiding the planning and construction of project and coordinating the smooth implementation of project. The second mechanism is to establish communication and reporting mechanism with WMO RA II and secretariat supporting group, and facilitate the visit and guidance of experts in Hangzhou. The third mechanism is to establish promotion and application mechanism of project research achievements, and to exert an exemplary effect as soon as possible.
Research contents
The following research contents are planned to achieve major scientific objectives of the project:
● Establish research interest groups to improve short-term probabilistic forecast based on available grand ensemble prediction system and understanding of the construction of regional convective-scale ensemble prediction, post-processing, verification and validation, and education and training.
● Develop technologies of convective-scale ensemble prediction system construction, post-processing and verification. Demonstrate the improvement of local severe weather forecasting by convective-scale ensemble prediction system. The latest progress of the project and construction method of regional convective-scale ensemble prediction system can be shared with interested RA II Members.
● Evaluate the improvement of forecast and early warning capabilities of short-term local severe convective weather by ensemble prediction system at hundred-meters scale and minute scale and associated uncertainty information. Provide support and assistance to RA II Members who are interested in ensemble prediction post-processing and verifying technology.
● Conduct training in the application of ensemble prediction products to provide better services for the Asian Games in Hangzhou. Provide training courses in convective-scale ensemble prediction and its application in severe weather forecasting for regional training centre. These training courses are available to interested WMO Members.
● Publish a research report on the influence of severe weather on sports event, society and economy and provide reference for WMO Members.
Implementation Phase
This project will have three main phases:
● Nov. 2022 to Aug. 2023
To develop the convective scale ensemble to provide estimates of uncertainties. Furthermore, methods like radar data assimilation, initial perturbation, products, can be transplant to convective-scale EPS;
To develop a post-processing technique and verification tool for convective-scale EPS and to assess its improving skill.
● Sep. 2023 to Oct. 2023
A demonstration phase to show how 1 km deterministic model and convective scale ensemble can improve SWE forecasts.
● Oct. 2023 to Dec. 2024
An assessment on the warning and forecasting capability phase to show how convective-scale EPS can improve Asia Game forecasts and to assess the warning and forecasting capability;
To develop training courses for end-users.
Scheduling
Project implementation schedule
Timeline | Activity | Notes |
Jan 2023 | 1. To complete SAC and PCT membership lists; 2. To prepare a project kickoff workshop and a second project implementation plan workshop, and to contact experts attending the workshop;
| Participating units: , relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Feb 2023 | 1. To form the construction plan of project demonstration platform, and to refine the division of tasks; 2. To hold the kick-off workshop in hybrid format and to make arrangements for future meeting plan at the workshop; 3. To develop HangzhouRDP convective-scale EPS | Participating units: relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Mar 2023 | 1. To attend Regional Conference of RA II (RECO), and to introduce HangzhouRDP and meteorological service needs of the Asian Games; 2. To organize training in EPS products application and hundred-meters scale and minute scale downscaling technique, targeted mainly at the weather forecasters at Hangzhou Asian Games Meteorological Observatory; 3. To complete project demonstration platform bidding; 4. To continue the development of HangzhouRDP convective-scale EPS | Participating units: CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Apr 2023 | 1. To complete preliminary debugging of EPS in Zhejiang high-performance computing environment; 2. To complete the forecast scheme at hundred-meters scale and system construction based on ensemble prediction | Participating units: CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
May 2023 | 1. To hold SAC and PCT meeting and report project progress; 2. To continue organizing the development of EPS and post-processing techniques to promote project implementation; 3. To complete the integration of various products | Participating units: relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Jun-Jul 2023 | 1. To complete the evaluation of EPS and forecast products; 2. To complete the construction of demonstration platform | Participating units: CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Aug 2023 | 1. To complete pilot run of EPS, post-processing system, and demonstration platform; 2. To conduct rehearsals for meteorological services during the Asian Games | Participating units: CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Sep - Oct 2023 | To carry out Hangzhou Asian Games forecast demonstration | Participating units: relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Nov 2023 - Apr 2024 | To summarize project achievements, and compile and make training courses | Participating units: relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
May 2024 | To organize an international training course | Participating units: relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
Jun - Dec 2024 | To hold a third project implementation plan workshop, summarize project achievements, and complete project acceptance | Participating units: relevant CMA functional departments, relevant WMO secretariat departments, relevant WMO expert team representatives, CEMC, ZMB, NMC, CMA Huafeng Institute of Innovation, CMATC, and cooperative units |
2022 - 2024 | To submit reports to WMO and popularize the project | WMO secretariat coordinate relevant technical committees |
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