The scientific objectives of HangzhouRDP are:

● Understand the influence of multi-scale initial errors and model errors on the prediction of high-resolution models, as well as the forecast uncertainty of local severe weather. Describe the uncertainty quantitatively.

● Demonstrate the enhancement of forecast and early warning of weather at hundred-meters scale and minute scale by the uncertainty information from ensemble forecast.

● Develop convective-scale ensemble prediction method and postprocessing and verification method for ensemble forecast at hundred-meters scale and minute scale. Provide experience and training courses on relevant technical methods to RA II Members.

Objective 1. Development of a regional convective-scale Ensemble Prediction System

A regional convective-scale EPS include regional convective scale coupled model, rapid refresh data assimilation and convective-scale ensemble. Develop methodology for rapid refresh data assimilation, perturbation of initial conditions and model formulation in dynamic and parameterization. Provide basic data for the research of hundred-meters scale and minute scale ensemble forecasting post-processing products and understand the influence of multi-scale initial errors and model errors on the prediction of high-resolution models.

This is mainly completed by CEMC.

Fig 2. The flow chart of convective-scale EPS for HangzhouRDP

Objective 2. Ensemble prediction post-processing of forecasts at hundred-meters scale and minute scale

Develop hundred-meters and minute scale (wind, temperature, precipitation, humidity) ensemble forecast (0-24 hours, 500-meter resolution, 10-minute update, 10 members) based on observational data and available grand ensemble forecast system. Provide Hangzhou Asian Games with wind, temperature, humidity, precipitation probability forecast products. Establish new post-processing technology for ensemble forecast and improve the application value of ensemble forecasting.

This is mainly completed by CMA Huafeng Group.

Objective 3. Convective-scale ensemble prediction applications and demonstration

Develop a demonstration application platform for convective scale ensemble prediction model products and post-processing products. Demonstrate and evaluate the hundred-meters scale and minute scale ensemble prediction products and the role of uncertainties.

This is mainly completed by ZMB.

Objective 4. Evaluation of convective-scale ensemble prediction application benefit

Study the evaluation method of ensemble forecast, formulate the inspection and evaluation strategy, and evaluate the forecast service benefit when there is ensemble forecast or not.

This is mainly completed by NMC.

Objective 5. International training of convective-scale ensemble prediction and its applications

Provide training for the forecasters on how to use the ensemble forecasts and convey uncertainty to end users which has to be given priority. Design the international training courses such as the basic knowledge of ensemble forecasting, the post-processing of ensemble forecasting, the evaluation of ensemble forecasting, and the demonstration forecasting effect of the Hangzhou Asian Games.

This is mainly completed by CMATC.