Heavy rainfall and strong gust wind during the Asian Games will have high impact on relevant events, especially on those outdoor activities. These SWE are generally local and have short life time cycles. Forecast products with high spatial and temporal resolution play an important role in enhancing the forecast performance of SWE. How to combine forecast uncertainty and local SWE forecast to provide more reliable forecast and early warning services is still one of the major scientific and social challenges.

WMO RA II Focal Points on Research intend to initiate the Hangzhou 2022 Research Development Project / Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction and Application (Hangzhou RDP). The project plans to develop application products with very high spatio-temporal resolution (at hundred-meters scale and minute scale) and conduct demonstration and application by developing convective-scale Ensemble Prediction System (EPS, including 1 km deterministic model and 3 km ensemble model) and using minute scale multi-source observations, gain a deep understanding toward the influence of multi-scale initial errors and model errors on high-resolution model forecasts, understand the forecast uncertainty of local SWE, demonstrate the improvement of forecast and early warning services of weather events at hundred-meters scale and minute scale brought by uncertainly information of ensemble forecast, and provide technical methods and references for RA II members on carrying out forecast and early warning services of high-impact weather at hundred-meters scale and minute scale.

The project is beneficial to promote the high-quality development of meteorological services and earth model system, as well as the international exchange of meteorological science and technology.

The project is designed to be jointly led by Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau (ZMB) and CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC), along with the participation of National Meteorological Centre (NMC), CMA Huafeng Group, and WMO Regional Training Centre Beijing (CMA Training Centre, CMATC). Involvement of WMO RA II members is encouraged. The project is expected to run for two years, including system development, data transmission test, ensemble prediction system construction in half a year, and case study and forecast evaluation of societal/economic impact in one and a half years. The project focuses on improving 0-36 h forecast and early warning capabilities of local rainfall and wind using uncertainty information from ensemble forecast.